Weather Forecast.. SO WRONG!

lovemesomemonster

I understand how a weekly forecast can suck out in time, hard to really nail it down.. but HOW in the world can you be so OFF when it's the next day!? I looked at the forecast for today LAST NIGHT and it was showing rain until 2pm (and I'm not talking a 10% chance, it was a 60% chance).. so far today there is not a SINGLE cloud in the sky, I mean not even a wispy white one! 

For some reason this drives me nuts.. does anyone else feel this way!? Are they better at predicting it in your area?

littlepep

One time our weather app said it was sunny and it was legit raining at that moment. 

I know nothing about predicting weather, but it must be hard because they always seem to be wrong. I feel like they just arbitrarily through out rain percentages. 

chibiyui

Sometimes I get annoyed. I've also looked at the weather saying it's sunny and it's pouring buckets outside. Weather is one of those things that can change at the drop of a hat though, so I'm sure predicting it with any accuracy is hard though. 

blabla89

ShesSoCold

All I can think about is Pheobe coming in saying, "Turn on the news; I think it might be raining."

lovemesomemonster

blabla89 said:

I think she might be our weatherman here haha!

Bubblegum5586

littlepep said:

One time our weather app said it was sunny and it was legit raining at that moment. 

I know nothing about predicting weather, but it must be hard because they always seem to be wrong. I feel like they just arbitrarily through out rain percentages. 

This happened to me on Sunday. We had a picnic and it starts raining! I pull out my phone and it says it was sunny!

hellosweetie1015

Well, the thing is, the rain percentages are essentially the likelihood of rain based on a lot of factors that I honestly don't understand. But a weatherman I trust pretty well (and follow on Facebook for that reason) explained it like this: if the weatherman / weather app / what have you, says "rain 50%" then it's essentially a coin toss whether you'll get it or not. A 25% chance means rain is about as likely as outright guessing the correct answer on a four-option multiple choice question.

I don't pay attention to the percentages so much. If it's higher than 50% chance, I try to remember to bring an umbrella, but it's too inexact to really rely upon beyond that. I prefer to rely on my own perceptions: is it raining out my window? Grab the wellies / rain jacket / umbrella. Sunshiney? Don't forget your sunglasses. Is it cloudy? Grab the umbrella just in case. Snowing? Go back to bed.

lovemesomemonster

I generally try to figure "Oh, it says rain so it will probably not be nicest sunny day" nope nope nope, no clouds, beautiful day. Should I complain? No. This is a completely irrational irritation and I totally get that, if you say chance of rain I better at least see a freaking cloud! 

Side note: I hate running with a passion, I do it so I can drink my beer and still fit in my clothes. When I see that rain is in the forecast I go on other days. So I feel like I waste a nice day when I don't go and I thought the rain day would give me an excuse to cuddle up on the couch after work and not feel guilty about it.

lyndausvi

We live in a world where EVERYTHING needs to be known, planned and somewhat controlled. 

 Mother Nature basically says "fuck your planning and your need to know everything. I do what i want, when I want.  Have fun driving yourself crazy trying to figure me out."

To answer your question.  No, it doesn't bother me when the weather prediction isn't correct.

classicalandedgy

Nope this gets me too all of the time and it often fucks with my plans.  I also find it annoying that I often see two different forecasts say on the weather channel and local news.  So irritating, so which one is right? 

lovegood90

It's definitely annoying since I've started biking to work; I won't if I see it's going to rain. So I didn't this morning but still no rain...grr.

mikenberger

I just need the weather man to be correct with "70 and sunny" next Friday. He can be wrong the rest of the year.

hellosweetie1015

classicalandedgy said:

Nope this gets me too all of the time and it often fucks with my plans.  I also find it annoying that I often see two different forecasts say on the weather channel and local news.  So irritating, so which one is right? 

I honestly trust local news. Especially in extreme conditions. They can say "There's a lot of tornadoey radar signatures in Bumfucknowhere's area, if you're along Highway 1, which includes Lovely Lane, Buttface Terrace, County Road 5372, and Minnie Mouse Court, get to your safe place." They're an hour away in the nearest large city, so I'm sure they're just looking at the map and saying roads they can see in the path, but it's very reassuring to know that they can say, "you people specifically need to find shelter". TWC doesn't have that.

tpwkalyn

hellosweetie1015 said:

Well, the thing is, the rain percentages are essentially the likelihood of rain based on a lot of factors that I honestly don't understand. But a weatherman I trust pretty well (and follow on Facebook for that reason) explained it like this: if the weatherman / weather app / what have you, says "rain 50%" then it's essentially a coin toss whether you'll get it or not. A 25% chance means rain is about as likely as outright guessing the correct answer on a four-option multiple choice question.

I don't pay attention to the percentages so much. If it's higher than 50% chance, I try to remember to bring an umbrella, but it's too inexact to really rely upon beyond that. I prefer to rely on my own perceptions: is it raining out my window? Grab the wellies / rain jacket / umbrella. Sunshiney? Don't forget your sunglasses. Is it cloudy? Grab the umbrella just in case. Snowing? Go back to bed.

Please tell me you're talking about James Spann.

lurkergirl

It doesn't bother me, but it's amusing that I'm practically neighbors with TWC headquarters, and they are frequently incorrect.  Jon Stewart mentions the same in his clip from Atlanta Snowpocalypse: http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/ht297f/south-parked

madamerwin

The Weather Channel app on my phone says, like, 50-70% chance of rain all week. But the news this morning said there will be a slight chance of showers tonight, but otherwise dry all week. (And usually the local weather guys are the ones over-predicting rain. 

Last night, TWC said 0% chance of rain, but when I left work it was sprinkling. I have no faith in weather predictions. 

Side note: Did you know that most people misunderstand what it means when they say there is an xx% chance of rain? (Clicky for an explanation, though I still don't get it even after reading it)

Edit: This article is actually way better.

hellosweetie1015

khugs15 said:

hellosweetie1015 said:

Well, the thing is, the rain percentages are essentially the likelihood of rain based on a lot of factors that I honestly don't understand. But a weatherman I trust pretty well (and follow on Facebook for that reason) explained it like this: if the weatherman / weather app / what have you, says "rain 50%" then it's essentially a coin toss whether you'll get it or not. A 25% chance means rain is about as likely as outright guessing the correct answer on a four-option multiple choice question.

I don't pay attention to the percentages so much. If it's higher than 50% chance, I try to remember to bring an umbrella, but it's too inexact to really rely upon beyond that. I prefer to rely on my own perceptions: is it raining out my window? Grab the wellies / rain jacket / umbrella. Sunshiney? Don't forget your sunglasses. Is it cloudy? Grab the umbrella just in case. Snowing? Go back to bed.

Please tell me you're talking about James Spann.

YAS GURL YAS he is my FAVORITE WEATHERMAN.

southernbelle0915

No, it doesn't bother me. Because 99% of the time, I find it to be accurate.

If everyone I worked with or sought services from was accurate 99% of the time, I would be most pleased. 

anjemon

This does bother me. Mostly because I think if you're going to make predictions, you should be fairly certain about them. I would be fine with them saying "we have no idea" if I could just depend more on what they were saying when they did make predictions.

Obviously this is hard for them to do. But I would prefer that.