Who wants to talk NH primary?

Heffalump

1.  Bernie vs. Hillary.  Thoughts?  Bets?  (BTW, you still can't prove to me that Bernie is not Larry Sanders.)  I keep meaning to drag out my hot pink Hillary for President button from '08.  I voted for her in the primary (and even got to see Bill speak live when he was in town). 

2.  To quote HuffPo, GOP WTF?  What do y'all think is going to happen there?  Kasich in 2nd?  Do you think he'll be able to keep that momentum going, or did he just hit his peak and it's all downhill from there?  Cruz, Rubio/Mr. Roboto?  Trump in 1st surprises almost no one, I think, based on how he was polling there.  But as a North Carolinian, I'm not sure his persona will get him as much traction in SC, where Yankees are not particularly popular.  But I've been wrong about him since last summer, so who knows?

FTR, Wooz correctly predicted Gingrich would win the SC GOP primary in 2012.  I haven't asked her for her thoughts on this race yet.  I'll keep you posted.   

NOLABridesmaid

I think Donald is sitting back saying, "Can you believe this?

nerdwife

1. I love Bernie. I am really glad that Bernie's message is out there and people are passionate about it. But I don't hate Hillary and will vote for her in the general election when she inevitably becomes the nominee. 

2. I frequently ask myself whether Donald Trump even wants to be president. It reminds me of a joke about Whole Foods that John Oliver made on an episode of Last Week Tonight: An elaborate practical joke that got really out of hand.

mrsconn23

I am on team 'write-in'.  I may be putting my name on the ballot.  I hate everyone.  

But this election has made for some excellent comedy and internet memes. 

wifezzlla

This is by far the worst election lineup I have ever payed attention to. I'll be writing in conn's name, now that I know she's interested in the job.

funniest and easiest to pay attention to, but man is this going to be one scary election.

the donald = sanjaya. i think someone on SNL said this.

charlotte989875

1. What was surprising (to me at least) was not that he won NH, I think that was always in the bag for him, being so popular in VT, but the margin by which he won, and how quickly she conceded. I don't think he will play as well in SC in two weeks, but I don't know that there is a lot of love for her there either.
2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains. I think Cruz will win SC, but Kasich might be a close third? I have to say I was surprised Bush was nearly tied with Cruz for third last night. I'm guessing Christie hangs on through SC, but drops out before Nevada, and definitely before Super Tuesday.

And I agree with everyone that Trump is trolling all of us, never thought he'd make it this far and is wondering how in the world he's getting out of this.

nerdwife

charlotte989875 said:

1. What was surprising (to me at least) was not that he won NH, I think that was always in the bag for him, being so popular in VT, but the margin by which he won, and how quickly she conceded. I don't think he will play as well in SC in two weeks, but I don't know that there is a lot of love for her there either.
2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains. I think Cruz will win SC, but Kasich might be a close third? I have to say I was surprised Bush was nearly tied with Cruz for third last night. I'm guessing Christie hangs on through SC, but drops out before Nevada, and definitely before Super Tuesday.

And I agree with everyone that Trump is trolling all of us, never thought he'd make it this far and is wondering how in the world he's getting out of this.

I am really really hoping he drops out now. I'm in NJ, and I don't know a single person who likes him (though clearly someone somewhere voted for him). He really is a horrible man and while I do not want him to return to my poor state, I do want him to get as far away from the presidency as possible. I think it speaks volumes that he was able to damage Rubio without helping himself in the slightest, especially in a state where he focused so much energy.

In short: na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good byeeeee.

PMeg819

1. I am happy for Bernie. I like him, and while I do think it's going to be hard for him to win the nomination- time will tell. I think Hillary is pretty established with the party and it's hard for the Dems to stomach a "democratic socialist". That said, he polls much better than Hillary vs Rep candidates. I think it speaks volumes the amount of fundraising he's done with small individual donations and the momentum he's gained in the past several months. If push comes to shove, I'll vote Hillary though.

2. The Rep candidates are just awful. Sorry if I'm being offensive, but they are so fucking backwards and idiotic it's unbelievable. It's like a whole bunch of Sarah Palin's running and people are lapping it up. I do hope that if Trump doesn't get the nomination, he runs as an independent a la Perot or Nader and pulls some of the R vote.

Super Tuesday will be very interesting....

Heffalump

charlotte989875 said:

2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains. I think Cruz will win SC, but Kasich might be a close third? I have to say I was surprised Bush was nearly tied with Cruz for third last night. I'm guessing Christie hangs on through SC, but drops out before Nevada, and definitely before Super Tuesday.

See, that's interesting to me, and I wrestled with that issue.  OTOH, there's his whole New York thing; I live in Union County (outside Charlotte) and there are a ton of NY/NJ transplants (mostly in banking), and they are not super popular with the natives.  On the other, Trump does anti-establishment better than anyone in the current GOP field, and I can see that playing well in the mountains or SC.  I know when I worked in SC, there was definitely some PC-backlash, and I could see him gaining support because of that.

Heffalump

nerdwife said:

charlotte989875 said:

1. What was surprising (to me at least) was not that he won NH, I think that was always in the bag for him, being so popular in VT, but the margin by which he won, and how quickly she conceded. I don't think he will play as well in SC in two weeks, but I don't know that there is a lot of love for her there either.
2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains. I think Cruz will win SC, but Kasich might be a close third? I have to say I was surprised Bush was nearly tied with Cruz for third last night. I'm guessing Christie hangs on through SC, but drops out before Nevada, and definitely before Super Tuesday.

And I agree with everyone that Trump is trolling all of us, never thought he'd make it this far and is wondering how in the world he's getting out of this.

I am really really hoping he drops out now. I'm in NJ, and I don't know a single person who likes him (though clearly someone somewhere voted for him). He really is a horrible man and while I do not want him to return to my poor state, I do want him to get as far away from the presidency as possible. I think it speaks volumes that he was able to damage Rubio without helping himself in the slightest, especially in a state where he focused so much energy.

In short: na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good byeeeee.

I am by no means a Christie fan, but I did actually like watching him call Rubio out for repeating his memorized response over and over.  Dude, WTF?  When DD's Fur Real Friend started doing that, I knew it was time to change the batteries. 

nerdwife

Heffalump said:

nerdwife said:

charlotte989875 said:

1. What was surprising (to me at least) was not that he won NH, I think that was always in the bag for him, being so popular in VT, but the margin by which he won, and how quickly she conceded. I don't think he will play as well in SC in two weeks, but I don't know that there is a lot of love for her there either.
2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains. I think Cruz will win SC, but Kasich might be a close third? I have to say I was surprised Bush was nearly tied with Cruz for third last night. I'm guessing Christie hangs on through SC, but drops out before Nevada, and definitely before Super Tuesday.

And I agree with everyone that Trump is trolling all of us, never thought he'd make it this far and is wondering how in the world he's getting out of this.

I am really really hoping he drops out now. I'm in NJ, and I don't know a single person who likes him (though clearly someone somewhere voted for him). He really is a horrible man and while I do not want him to return to my poor state, I do want him to get as far away from the presidency as possible. I think it speaks volumes that he was able to damage Rubio without helping himself in the slightest, especially in a state where he focused so much energy.

In short: na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, good byeeeee.

I am by no means a Christie fan, but I did actually like watching him call Rubio out for repeating his memorized response over and over.  Dude, WTF?  When DD's Fur Real Friend started doing that, I knew it was time to change the batteries. 

Hahaha I totally support this. I didn't actually watch the debate since I had plans that night, but I've heard, and I'm not denying that Chris Christie was right (though it pains me to say). I'm just saying that it's amazing that he was so spot on that he managed to sink Rubio's campaign but still couldn't work up enthusiasm for his own. It says a lot about what kind of support he doesn't have.

banana468

Ugh.   

This election is just making me angry.   I tend to vote more conservative but I do not like any of the Republican candidates.   I loathe Donald Trump and the fact that I have family members singing his praises makes me question those family members.   I can't even process how people can hear the words coming out of his mouth and think "Yup.   Let's build that wall and keep out all the Muslims.   That's what this country needs."  

At this point, the primary in my state means very little but if it comes down to Sanders vs. Trump, Sanders gets my vote.    

I kind of hope Bloomberg gives it a go. 

scrunchythief

I'm firmly in camp, "IDK, not Trump tho."  But I haven't super seriously researched yet, because I live in PA and our primaries rarely influence the outcome:(

With Christie, I've never heard good things about him from someone from NJ, but I think he gained a bit of traction with Hurricane Sandy.  I remember a lot of people saying how they liked how he worked with Obama during that time.  

Heffalump

scrunchythief said:

I'm firmly in camp, "IDK, not Trump tho."  But I haven't super seriously researched yet, because I live in PA and our primaries rarely influence the outcome:(

With Christie, I've never heard good things about him from someone from NJ, but I think he gained a bit of traction with Hurricane Sandy.  I remember a lot of people saying how they liked how he worked with Obama during that time.  

People who were not the RNC or the Republican base, unfortunately (for Christie).

http://www.northjersey.com/columnists/gop-won-t-forgive-christie-s-obama-hug-1.1389401

FWIW, I would have done exactly the same in his shoes.  I think the fact that it didn't play well with a lot of voters said more about them than it did about him.

I'm pro-Hillary, all the way.  I try with The Bern, I really do.  But to me, he comes off as the kooky uncle who rails about this and that.  I admire his idealism--I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, but I do believe he says what he means and means what he says.  But I don't think that's enough, and he hasn't convinced me that he would be able to translate his ideas into any kind of reality, particularly in the current political climate.

I really don't know what to make of the GOP field, and it's not for lack of trying. 

PMeg819

Heffalump said:

scrunchythief said:

I'm firmly in camp, "IDK, not Trump tho."  But I haven't super seriously researched yet, because I live in PA and our primaries rarely influence the outcome:(

With Christie, I've never heard good things about him from someone from NJ, but I think he gained a bit of traction with Hurricane Sandy.  I remember a lot of people saying how they liked how he worked with Obama during that time.  

People who were not the RNC or the Republican base, unfortunately (for Christie).

http://www.northjersey.com/columnists/gop-won-t-forgive-christie-s-obama-hug-1.1389401

FWIW, I would have done exactly the same in his shoes.  I think the fact that it didn't play well with a lot of voters said more about them than it did about him.

I'm pro-Hillary, all the way.  I try with The Bern, I really do.  But to me, he comes off as the kooky uncle who rails about this and that.  I admire his idealism--I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, but I do believe he says what he means and means what he says.  But I don't think that's enough, and he hasn't convinced me that he would be able to translate his ideas into any kind of reality, particularly in the current political climate.

I really don't know what to make of the GOP field, and it's not for lack of trying. 

I think Bernie has lofty goals- and some are definitely unreachable in the current political climate. So if he was elected, it could be a presidency of nothingness. But there is a possibility that depending on Representative/Senate elections we could see a more "liberal" make-up. I don't know the likelihood of that though.

I keep waiting for the Republican party to just implode, especially given the current candidates, but the nutters are just having a field day with this group.

PMeg819

Side note: CNN has the most unflattering picture of Carly Fiorina

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/carly-fiorina

nerdwife

Heffalump said:

scrunchythief said:

I'm firmly in camp, "IDK, not Trump tho."  But I haven't super seriously researched yet, because I live in PA and our primaries rarely influence the outcome:(

With Christie, I've never heard good things about him from someone from NJ, but I think he gained a bit of traction with Hurricane Sandy.  I remember a lot of people saying how they liked how he worked with Obama during that time.  

People who were not the RNC or the Republican base, unfortunately (for Christie).

http://www.northjersey.com/columnists/gop-won-t-forgive-christie-s-obama-hug-1.1389401

FWIW, I would have done exactly the same in his shoes.  I think the fact that it didn't play well with a lot of voters said more about them than it did about him.

I'm pro-Hillary, all the way.  I try with The Bern, I really do.  But to me, he comes off as the kooky uncle who rails about this and that.  I admire his idealism--I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, but I do believe he says what he means and means what he says.  But I don't think that's enough, and he hasn't convinced me that he would be able to translate his ideas into any kind of reality, particularly in the current political climate.

I really don't know what to make of the GOP field, and it's not for lack of trying. 

Yes, the one good thing I can say about Chris Christie is that he was willing to embrace President Obama at the moment, though I'm sure he wishes he could go back in time and undo it. At the time of the storm, he was pretty good at doing what needed to be done, but he totally fell off after that and hasn't followed through. Plus, he tried to abandon his state when there was a blizzard a few weeks ago so he could be in New Hampshire.

In sum: I hate him and hate that he's our governor, but at least he won't  be president!

Also, I totally see your point with Bernie, and I fear that he would have a hard time getting things done in the current climate. But the thing I like about him is I never have to worry that he's going to say something that he later has to explain away or something like that. He's just completely authentically liberal and a real fighter for the causes he supports, and I find that so refreshing. And, sadly, not so for Hillary, which is a bummer because I do think she's qualified and experienced and could do a good job. Hopefully, she'll have the opportunity to prove to everyone that she is capable.

banana468

Heffalump said:

scrunchythief said:

I'm firmly in camp, "IDK, not Trump tho."  But I haven't super seriously researched yet, because I live in PA and our primaries rarely influence the outcome:(

With Christie, I've never heard good things about him from someone from NJ, but I think he gained a bit of traction with Hurricane Sandy.  I remember a lot of people saying how they liked how he worked with Obama during that time.  

People who were not the RNC or the Republican base, unfortunately (for Christie).

http://www.northjersey.com/columnists/gop-won-t-forgive-christie-s-obama-hug-1.1389401

FWIW, I would have done exactly the same in his shoes.  I think the fact that it didn't play well with a lot of voters said more about them than it did about him.

I'm pro-Hillary, all the way.  I try with The Bern, I really do.  But to me, he comes off as the kooky uncle who rails about this and that.  I admire his idealism--I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, but I do believe he says what he means and means what he says.  But I don't think that's enough, and he hasn't convinced me that he would be able to translate his ideas into any kind of reality, particularly in the current political climate.

I really don't know what to make of the GOP field, and it's not for lack of trying. 

I feel like the Republicans are so obsessed with wanting to shake up the country that the're losing sight of how the majority of voters are voting.   

I compare this to creating a meal for my kids.  Yes, I can feed the 5 yo kale, baked chicken, some roasted potatoes and raspberries in a white wine sauce.  And tomorrow night I can choose a kale-based dish with some quinoa and turkey.   But I'd like the kid to eat.   So the food needs to be something that will go from plate to mouth and not from plate to trash.

I don't think the Republicans have realized that if they continue to present the candidates they do, then they're going to go from ballot to trash.   You're not going to get the majority to vote for candidates with platforms that please a small amount of voters.   I'm not sure why they haven't figured that out yet.   

VarunaTT

I'm so tired of this primary season, I could scream.  Look, I know HRC isn't really my candidate of choice.  I find some of the policies/decisions she's helped implement as Secretary of State alarming.  I wasn't particularly fond of her voting records as Senator of NY either.  While I reluctantly concede that lots of politicians (including Obama) "evolved" on same sex marriage, I still don't know how anyone has to "evolve" on human/citizen rights and it pisses me off that they did.

Bernie has lofty goals.  However, lest we forget, the president doesn't propose or guide legislation through Congress.  Where are his supporters for these bills?  Where is his go-to person in Congress?  He's been known for being an Independent that would mainly caucus for Dems, but b/c of that, he doesn't have a lot of structural Dem party support.  Also, he has no foreign policy experience at all.  That's truly the #1 purview of the President.  While I like a lot of his positions on most treaties coming up, they match that of HRC.  And HRC has both foreign experience and the structural party support.  The establishment is not "evil"; it's how shit gets done.

I swear to all that is holy, I have been losing my shit over the sexist attacks though.  HRC'S gender matters.  I'm not telling you that you SHOULD vote for her because she's a woman.  But stop pretending that the fact she's a woman doesn't matter and isn't important.  It fucking does and it fucking is.  You know when any woman's gender while running for Pres of USA won't matter?  When there is more than half, the majority, or hell, even the entirety of a state government branch, judiciary branch, or federal government branch made up by women.  Why?  B/c men were 100% of the government(s) for hundreds of goddamn years and no one blinked an eye or thought "How odd."  FFS, 22 other world countries have current female presidents, most are 2nd world countries, and the US can't pull it's head out of it's ass yet, but Hey....how's about those pantsuits?  SMDH.

Heffalump

PMeg819 said:

Side note: CNN has the most unflattering picture of Carly Fiorina

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/carly-fiorina

OMG, she looks like Snoke from Star Wars in that pic.  That has to be grounds for libel, right?





ETA what passes for sarcasm font these days

Heffalump

VarunaTT said:

Bernie has lofty goals.  However, lest we forget, the president doesn't propose or guide legislation through Congress.  Where are his supporters for these bills?  Where is his go-to person in Congress?  He's been known for being an Independent that would mainly caucus for Dems, but b/c of that, he doesn't have a lot of structural Dem party support.  Also, he has no foreign policy experience at all.  That's truly the #1 purview of the President.  While I like a lot of his positions on most treaties coming up, they match that of HRC.  And HRC has both foreign experience and the structural party support.  The establishment is not "evil"; it's how shit gets done.

That's the crux of my skepticism.  I could stand up and name lots of policies I'd like to see implemented if I were elected president, and maybe I'd even get some votes.  But then what?

charlotte989875

So I was wrong, looks like Christie is suspending his campaign today. So much for my PhD in political science. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/breaking-news-chris-christie-expected-to-suspend-presidential-campaign-219074

Heffalump said:

charlotte989875 said:

2. @Heffalump I'm also in NC, but there is a good deal of support for Trump where I am in the mountains.

See, that's interesting to me, and I wrestled with that issue.  OTOH, there's his whole New York thing; I live in Union County (outside Charlotte) and there are a ton of NY/NJ transplants (mostly in banking), and they are not super popular with the natives.  On the other, Trump does anti-establishment better than anyone in the current GOP field, and I can see that playing well in the mountains or SC.  I know when I worked in SC, there was definitely some PC-backlash, and I could see him gaining support because of that.

I live in Jackson country (45 miles west of Asheville) and the Trump rhetoric seems to resonate with the largely white, male demographic here. Roughly 20% of our county population is living below the poverty line (we're higher than the NC average) and surrounding counties are even higher. Sadly, the anti-establishment, anti-immigrant, kick people out and restore America language is popular here.

monkeysip

I'm feeling the Bern.  Of course, I completely recognize that a lot of his goals are probably unattainable.  BUT I'm so sick of politics today, and the mediocrity of both parties, I would just love to see things shaken up more.  I'd love to see at least an honest attempt to separate politics from big corporate money.  And while it may never happen, I'd love to see single payer healthcare.  I guess I am an idealist, but with the choices we have for president now, I feel better about myself at the end of the day choosing the idealist option than the cynical, realistic option.

If Sanders doesn't get the nomination, I'm probably writing in someone.  Not sure who yet.  Maybe @mrs.conn23 ?  I'd like to see some policy proposals first

ETA:  I also feel like HRC is a little hawkish, at least more so than Bernie (obviously far less so than most of the Republicans).  I'd like to see a lot less military intervention.

NavyBlue143

If Dems can take back the House and Senate, I see no reason that Bernie can't accomplish his goals. Not all of them, because government is a slow moving machine, but many of them. But if Hillary gets the nomination, I'll vote for her, because the idea of any of those GOP whackadoodles as President terrifies me. 

VarunaTT

The problem with that is that:

1. Dems are notorious for not showing up to midterm elections, so even if he gets a Dem Congress (unlikely for other reasons), he probably only has it for 2 years (Clinton and Obama serving as prime examples);

2. Gerrymandering in most states has actually reduced the number of competitive seats that Dems can even claim chance to (another result of Dems not giving a crap about anything but the president which didn't used to be true); and

3. If you're paying attention to the Republican primaries, MORE Republicans are showing up to vote overall than Dems, even with the "new surge" Sanders is bringing in.  That doesn't bode well for picking up Dem seats in Congress.

Sanders himself has said that he needs people to make sure they come and out vote and stay out and voting.  I'm cynical enough to point out that Americans have yet to make that true for any president ever.  Obama lost most of his new voters in 2012, not to the other side or another candidate, but to apathy b/c his "change" wasn't sexy enough.