Has anyone done strictly cupcakes for dessert? How well did that go over with guests? What might be a good estimate for how many might be needed? Of course I'll also ask the baker how many they recommend. Most online estimates I've seen suggest 1.5 per person, which I *think* seems reasonable, but I have no experience providing cupcakes for a group. I'd rather have extras than run out, but I also don't want a ton of leftovers.
Re: Cupcakes!
If cupcakes are your ONLY dessert offering, you may want to consider 2.0 (maybe 1.75). If you plan to have other desserts available, you could consider 1.25 or 1.0. There are a few factors that come into play (full meal vs. Cocktail or dessert reception only, other desserts being served, etc).
If cupcakes are in lieu of cake, definitely have enough for everyone to have one, even if there will be other desserts. I've seen some try to get by cheap ordering enough for 75 percent figuring not everyone will have one or prefer one of the other dessert options, but when it is taking the place of the actual wedding cake you should definitely plan on everyone. I probably wouldn't go less than 1.5 though.
I can't recall how many we ordered, but we did have leftovers (mmmm and now I'm hungry!)
For DH's cousin's wedding, they had 200 guests and 400 cupcakes and at the end of the night a very messy table from where the cupcakes had been. Same rule applies to cupcakes as it does to cake - GOOD TASTING gets EATEN! It doesn't matter how it LOOKS, if it tastes like crud, it won't get eaten. If you do your giving eachother a bite of cupcake right away when you enter the room and don't wait around, people will eat more as it'll be a snack through the evening. Knowing your guests also makes a difference.
IMO, plan two cupcakes per person, geometrically it's the equivalent portion to a wedding cake slice and no one ever complains about their slice of yummy cake being too big, but having been the guest at at least four weddings to NOT get cake, always err on the side of more than enough than not enough!