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I had expected 100 guests (give or take), and had about 85 show up. I had 100 programs made up and had about 30 leftover. PS. I used Vistaprint to make my programs and they were great and inexpensive (especially with a groupon), so I wasn't too heartbroken about the leftovers.
We were expecting 200 guests as well and made about 150 programs, but still had about 30 leftovers. I would do half of what you are expecting or maybe half + 20. Most couples can share one, and just have 20 or so for single people or those that might prefer there own. I know it was the week before the wedding and we spent hours printing these and tying bows and it sucked to have to throw 30+ away. I did keep a few for momentos though.