What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?

Blueyed228

So we are in day 2 of the hearings, and I am an so interested in this.

Outside of whether you support Obamacare or not, do you think the Supreme Court is going to overturn it?  WHy or why not?

Blueyed228

From what I can see, if seems like the 4 liberal justices are in support of it, the 4 on the right are against it, but Kennedy looks like he may be the swing vote, and he has said some things that indicate that he isnt in support of it.

Blueyed228

Thats what im thinking too DJ.  THey are talking right now about if its legal for the Govt to create commerce, force you to buy it, and then regulate it.

I think its a solid argument.  Scalia is making some valid points.

musicalsunlight

It sounds like Roberts is the lone swing vote because Kennedy has been making points that sound like he is pretty against it. It is really looking like it may be overturned. I'm just curious as to how much of it will be. There is so damn much in that bill.

AllAboutTheBenjamin

Yeah, I think it's toast.

I also kinda hate the term "ObamaCare."  We don't call Social Security "Roosevelt Security."  Eck, I digress.

I think there is a lot of good in the health care law but I really think the "mandate" is what kills it.  I can understand why it might be good in theory but for the most part, yeah.  I think it will get overturned by a narrow margin.  It'll be close.

Blueyed228

I think the individual mandate is what is going to do the bill in.

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:8fad5f50-b42e-4bb5-86cb-1091d32bee4f">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]Yeah, I think it's toast.<strong><u> I also kinda hate the term "ObamaCare</u></strong>."  We don't call Social Security "Roosevelt Security."  Eck, I digress. I think there is a lot of good in the health care law but I really think the "mandate" is what kills it.  I can understand why it might be good in theory but for the most part, yeah.  I think it will get overturned by a narrow margin.  It'll be close.
Posted by AllAboutTheBenjamin[/QUOTE]

ILL CALL IT WHAT I WANT BITCH

musicalsunlight

I agree with you AATB. Unfortunately there are good parts of the bill that I think should stay, so I wonder if they will reverse part of it and keep others. Like, I don't disagree with the part about allowing students up to age 26 on parents health insurance. Probably because I'm biased and I am taking advantage of that. hah.

Blueyed228

Musu- can they overturn part of it and not all of it?

I was under the impression that they have to overturn all of it and make them start over again?

musicalsunlight

I guess in an article I read in CNN, they mentioned having "All, or part of it, reversed" so that is where I got the idea that maybe parts of it could be kept.

laurenclaire1386

I can't say objectively what I think will happen, because my opinion on it is so strong. That said, I believe it's unconstitutional and I don't think the arguments I've heard to the contrary are particularly compelling. 

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:3718afb4-5337-40e9-b7fe-6ecc881a5a2b">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]Without the individual mandate, insurance premiums are going to be through the roof.  It's a necessary part of the ACA to keep health insurance affordable.  
Posted by yaga13[/QUOTE]

Maybe.  But is an individual mandate Constitutional?  They way they are talking about it, it seems like it is not.

maratea

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:33d7d48f-ed10-46ad-b806-b7651c7a53b1">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]Thats what im thinking too DJ.  THey are talking right now about if its legal for the Govt to create commerce, force you to buy it, and then regulate it. I think its a solid argument.  Scalia is making some valid points.
Posted by Blueyed228[/QUOTE]
I agree. I really don't think forcing everyone to get insurance is going to really help. It seems like more of an incentive to healthcare providers to turn down insurance companies/policies, i.e, being more selective.

musicalsunlight

The Court of Appeals said that the mandate section could be severed from the rest of the act, so if the SCOTUS agrees, I guess it could.

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:24282059-f1eb-49d9-8cbf-17d4e268ddba">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]The Court of Appeals said that the mandate section could be severed from the rest of the act, so if the SCOTUS agrees, I guess it could.
Posted by musicalsunlight[/QUOTE]

I see.  Thank you for clearing that up.

laurenclaire1386

Insurance premiums are going to go up one way or the other, individual mandate or not. I do not buy the idea that more government oversight=lower prices. That has been proven to almost NEVER be true. And when it does prove true, it's an artificial truth and creates a bubble that will indeed burst. 

musicalsunlight

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:2ca7056f-9150-4a95-bc09-c4b87af7485b">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : I see.  Thank you for clearing that up.
Posted by Blueyed228[/QUOTE]

I just looked the case up on my research stuff, and the actual language says:


"
<div class="co_paragraph"><div class="co_paragraphText"><a href="https://1.next.westlaw.com/Document/Ib1e2b784c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa/View/FullText.html?listSource=RelatedInfo&docFamilyGuid=Ib1e2b785c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa&originationContext=appellatehistory&transitionType=HistoryItem&contextData=%28sc.DocLink%29#co_anchor_F92025855632" class="co_internalLink" rel="nofollow">1</a> Act's expansion of the Medicaid program, enacted pursuant to the Spending Clause, was not so unduly coercive as to violate Tenth Amendment's restriction on the use of the spending power to encourage state legislation;</div></div><div class="co_paragraph"><div class="co_paragraphText"><a href="https://1.next.westlaw.com/Document/Ib1e2b784c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa/View/FullText.html?listSource=RelatedInfo&docFamilyGuid=Ib1e2b785c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa&originationContext=appellatehistory&transitionType=HistoryItem&contextData=%28sc.DocLink%29#co_anchor_F132025855632" class="co_internalLink" rel="nofollow">2</a> individual mandate exceeded the boundaries of Congress's enumerated power under Commerce Clause;</div></div><div class="co_paragraph"><div class="co_paragraphText"><a href="https://1.next.westlaw.com/Document/Ib1e2b784c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa/View/FullText.html?listSource=RelatedInfo&docFamilyGuid=Ib1e2b785c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa&originationContext=appellatehistory&transitionType=HistoryItem&contextData=%28sc.DocLink%29#co_anchor_F152025855632" class="co_internalLink" rel="nofollow">3</a> individual mandate operated as a civil regulatory penalty, not a tax, and therefore could not be authorized pursuant to Taxing and Spending Clause; and</div></div><div class="co_paragraph"><div class="co_paragraphText"><a href="https://1.next.westlaw.com/Document/Ib1e2b784c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa/View/FullText.html?listSource=RelatedInfo&docFamilyGuid=Ib1e2b785c4cd11e093b4f77be4dcecfa&originationContext=appellatehistory&transitionType=HistoryItem&contextData=%28sc.DocLink%29#co_anchor_F182025855632" class="co_internalLink" rel="nofollow">4</a> unconstitutional individual mandate could be severed from the remainder of the Act's myriad reforms."

So those are the holdings that the SCOTUS are going to affirm or reverse, it seems.
</div></div>

NuggetBrain

I don't know nearly enough about it to make an informed decision.

dmiller9274

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:33d7d48f-ed10-46ad-b806-b7651c7a53b1">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]Thats what im thinking too DJ.  THey are talking right now about if its legal for the Govt to create commerce, force you to buy it, and then regulate it. I think its a solid argument.  Scalia is making some valid points.
Posted by Blueyed228[/QUOTE]
I don't see how anyone can argue that it's constitutional from a federal government standpoint, it's not. Handled by the states, sure. Not by the federal government. 

laurenclaire1386

Your sig is wonderful Nuggs.

pirategal03

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:24282059-f1eb-49d9-8cbf-17d4e268ddba">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]The Court of Appeals said that the mandate section could be severed from the rest of the act, so if the SCOTUS agrees, I guess it could.
Posted by musicalsunlight[/QUOTE]

They'd have to decide that Congress' intent was to make it severable, right?  I don't see the Supreme Court assuming anything about the intent of Congress.

I think it'll be fully struck down and the supporters (outside the Court) will blame the severability.  

musicalsunlight

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:52f7a7ff-415b-4358-84e5-6d8a7e51cce6">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : They'd have to decide that Congress' intent was to make it severable, right?  I don't see the Supreme Court assuming anything about the intent of Congress. I think it'll be fully struck down and the supporters (outside the Court) will blame the severability.  
Posted by pirategal03[/QUOTE]


It seems the Ct of Appeals said that given that the other provisions of the act contained no cross reference to the mandate, it would make the severability ok. But I don't know if SCOTUS will look at congressional intent or not.

laurenclaire1386

Yeah everyone has a choice about whether or not they drive. Being alive is a different kettle of fish. And I would echo Scalia's question, "Where does it stop?" It's unconstitutional for the government to compel you via tax penalties to buy a product, no matter what the product is. and insurance is indeed a product. 

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:1a0b1670-cfb3-4f8c-b991-bcc957023c11">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : I don't see how anyone can argue that it's constitutional from a federal government standpoint, it's not. Handled by the states, sure. Not by the federal government. 
Posted by dmiller9274[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:93c8d9fe-cdc8-4bad-82e0-f458d0203b82">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : Yes this.  I am under the impression that the IM could be overturned, but the rest of the Act will stand (not allowing insurers to turn down people with pre-existing conditions, no lifetime limits on coverage, allowing people up to age 26 to remain on their parents' coverage) - which is why rates will go up so much<strong><u>. I have a hard time myself seeing why it's unconstitutional because of my own opinions of the ACA</u></strong>.  (Thanks to my Health Policy and Management class I'm taking right now.  I know the ACA like the back of my hand at this point.)   No that's a lie - I can see both sides.  On one side - no one complains that car insurance is a legal requirement to drive a car.  But on the other side - no one says that you *have* to drive.  However, getting sick is not a choice.   I don't think the current system works at all, and it's a shame that the ACA could fall apart over this.  
Posted by yaga13[/QUOTE]

I think most people have the feeling that the Govt cant have a monopoly on something, and then force you to buy it.

Blueyed228

I wouldnt have a big problem with them making insurance companies cover everyone, even with pre-existing conditions.  I would support that over them making me buy their healthcare.

maratea

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:a4bdf413-6eaa-4509-9b6f-bddcac327dc8">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? :  <strong>There is also parts of the ACA that prohibit insurance companies from spending more than a certain amount on salaries, administrative fees, advertising, etc.</strong>  I forget the number that private companies need to be at, but it's much lower than how they currently operate.
Posted by yaga13[/QUOTE]
This sounds like it's going to make people avoid working in the health insurance industry, which I'm sure is not a very pleasant industry to work in the first place.

musicalsunlight

It IS unconstitutional. I don't really think that the constitution and the SCOTUS history examining the commerce clause & tax clause make any other finding than that it is unconstitutional. I don't get the argument that the mandate is constitutional in any sense.

laurenclaire1386

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding%20BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:19f0678a-fec0-44d4-8ce8-4eb57d4cff41">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : They aren't providing the healthcare insurance, so how is that a monopoly?  
Posted by yaga13[/QUOTE]<div>But they are. They're subsidizing it if you can't afford a private policy. I think. Isn't that right? There will be a government sponsored alternative if you can't afford to take out a refular policy? I might have my facts wrong, but logic dictates that you would already have a private policy if you could afford it and therefore anyone who doesn't have one would have no choice but to use the government option. 

</div>

Blueyed228

In Response to <a href="http://forums.theknot.com/Sites/theknot/Pages/Main.aspx/wedding-boards_snarky-brides_what-do-you-think-is-going-to-happen-with-obamacare?plckFindPostKey=Cat:Wedding BoardsForum:17Discussion:64e8501a-17f1-4590-aedc-fbcbac8d111ePost:efe337d8-89e8-47f7-9007-7f0f3a92ea6e">Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare?</a>:
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: What do you think is going to happen with Obamacare? : But they are. They're subsidizing it if you can't afford a private policy. I think. Isn't that right? There will be a government sponsored alternative if you can't afford to take out a refular policy? I might have my facts wrong, but logic dictates that you would already have a private policy if you could afford it and therefore anyone who doesn't have one would have no choice but to use the government option. 
Posted by laurenclaire1386[/QUOTE]

This is my answer too Yaga, lol.

Blueyed228

Plus, we already have medical coverage for people who cant afford it.  Here in my state is Mass Health.  People on it pay little to nothing for full coverage.  Coverage that is better than some private held policies.