"Half of all marriages end in divorce."

thelastdreamer · November 2014

I have always accepted this to be fact and never really thought much about it. When all my friends and I started getting engaged, I do remember thinking it was sad that statistically we may not all stay married.

This past Sunday, I was in church and the guest speaker was a woman named Shaunti Feldhahn. My disclaimer is that I was not familiar with this woman beforehand, and for all I know she may be a raging crackpot. I've done a little research and discovered that she is a Christian author, but has also worked in data collection on Wall Street and at least seems to be legitimately qualified in her research.

Anyway, her message was surprisingly not religious in nature. She explained that she has spent the last eight years trying to find a "real" divorce rate. She attempted to find it about a decade ago to mention briefly in a newspaper column she was writing because she wanted to properly cite it and figured it was probably actually 49.4 percent or something. In trying to cite it, she realized that no real number actually showed anything close to 50 percent. Since then, she has conducted tons of research and concluded that the divorce rate actually has never hit anywhere near 50 percent, and that today more than 70 percent of people are still married to their first spouse (the other 30 percent includes divorce AND widows/widowers), according to the U.S. census bureau.

This was shocking to me. Maybe you all knew this, but I found it really encouraging (this is assuming it's true and she's not a crackpot).

I found this article discussing her research: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laura-seldon/could-the-way-we-think-ab_b_5516594.html

I just thought you guys might be intrigued by this too.

southernbelle0915 · November 2014

That's really interesting. I've always had that "50%" number in my head, too.

What would be REALLY interesting to me (and probably impossible to really find out).... is how many people are HAPPY in their marriages. I know there are people who are married and barely even like their spouse, people who "stay together for the kids", people who are married on paper but maintain other romantic relationships, etc.

Bubblegum5586 · November 2014

Wow I didn't know this. I have heard 50-60% now! As a child of divorce I have also heard that it increases my percentage... blah blah blah!

Because of that I have read various articles about long lasting marriages. The two most common things I see is that commitment and kindness are more important then love.

chibiyui · November 2014

I've heard that the 50% was from back in the 90s, and the rate is closer to 35 40%. I'm too lazy to Google that now though.

Numbers lie.

esstee33 · November 2014

southernbelle0915 said:

That's really interesting. I've always had that "50%" number in my head, too.

What would be REALLY interesting to me (and probably impossible to really find out).... is how many people are HAPPY in their marriages. I know there are people who are married and barely even like their spouse, people who "stay together for the kids", people who are married on paper but maintain other romantic relationships, etc.

This is the statistic I'd be interested in, too.

My dad and stepmom almost got divorced this year after 20 years of marriage. They basically stayed together because he felt guilty and it would financially ruin him.

daria24 · November 2014

I have read a few articles in the past few years about the actual divorce rate being much lower than 50%.

I've also read articles that state that evangelical couples have a higher divorce rate than atheists, which made me snicker.

thelastdreamer · November 2014

Her explanation was that the 50 percent thing was actually a projection by researchers in the late 70s when no-fault divorce started. As soon as no-fault divorce passed, tons of people got divorced right away. Researchers were shocked and said if it continued at this rate, it would hit 50 percent by the 90s. What actually happened was that it peaked in the early 80s and has been declining ever since.

amelisha · November 2014

Even if it WERE accurate, it includes all those idiots in my high school class who got married when they were practically babies, the Kardashians, people like that girl from last week who thought she was too old (at 21) to find someone else to marry, and people who got drunk in Vegas...so I think anyone who's entering into a marriage after some degree of thought and preparation already has a much better shot than even odds.

charlieyankee03 · November 2014

I have also heard that being the child of divorced parents increases the likelihood that you will get divorced. I think it's bullshit. What about learning what NOT to do from your parent's failed marriage? My mother cheated on my father for who knows how many years. After experiencing that pain and deception, I could never do that to FI. His parents have been married for almost 40 years and they seem miserable. I also know I do not want to end up like them.

I understand that people say my risks are higher because I have seen first hand that marriage can be used as an "out" when things get tough. But what about wanting to do things better than our parents did? Isn't that one reason people mention for having children? Why wouldn't I apply those same lessons to my marriage?

KatieinBkln · November 2014

I had always heard that it is "50% of marriages end in divorce" rather than "there is a 50% divorce rate." The latter means you might have a 50-50 chance of having a lasting marriage. The former accounts for people who've been divorced more than once.

But regardless, it never suits to compare your own personal experience to a statistic (especially if, as in this case, the statistic is wrong!). Because you are not a random "person" in the world of a study, and your relationship is not a generic "relationship." It's not correct to extrapolate from a study that an individual has the same probability as the group, since each individual has mitigating factors at play which are "evened out" in a broader study, but are crucially important to you and your particular case.

It's the same reason why even though X% of people are redheads, X% of people in any given family are not. Individual characteristics make a much bigger difference for, ya know, an individual.

Broader statistics like the "50% divorce rate" are only useful in their correct context, which in this case would be a sociological context, not a personal one. (Like, sure, use it to talk about how divorce affects the economy, or child-rearing, or litigation, or whatever. Don't use it to scoff at someone who's engaged because "they only have a 50-50 shot." False. Go back to science class).

vikinganna87 · November 2014

Our premarital counselor told us that when times are tough, many people think they made a "selection error." In reality, we are all complex individuals with layers of experiences - good and bad- and at the time we meet our partners only a small part of that is visible. So once you've been married a while you find out all these things about your partner and yourself that you never could've anticipated.

Our counselor said that, if you flee the marriage and try finding someone else you're eventually just going to have the same issues all over again.

MairePoppy · November 2014

I'm an oldie wed - 35 years. I was thinking back to when my daughter was in sixth grade in Catholic school, about how many of those parents are still married to each other. I come up with two sets of parents out of a class of 24 kids. Prior to my generation, divorce was a rarity. Not saying the older ones were happier, but they probably stuck it out for the sake of their families or for financial reasons.

theycallmelinz · November 2014

That statistic has always bothered me! In my therapy classes, we learned that the way researchers got that "statistic" is by dividing the number of marriages in X year by the number of divorces the Y year. So let's say that in the year 2012, there were 50,000 marriages. In 2013, there were 25,000 divorces. That means that 50,000M/25,000D = 50%. However, this is inaccurate because for all we know, those 25,000 divorces were couples who got married YEARS ago, and all those 50,000 marriages could go on for years and years and years. The only way to accurately determine a divorce rate would be to track every marriage that took place in a given year, and look over the years at which of those specific couples were still married after 10 years, 20 years, so on and so forth.

princessleia22 · November 2014

Lots of people may be married to their first spouse, but then you get people on 3rd, 4th, 5th, or whatever marriages that skew the statistics. And what about people that divorce then remarry their previous spouse? I have an aunt that was divorced 3 times, 4th husband died, then she remarried husband #3. So, she's been married 5 times, to 4 different guys, with 3 divorces and widowed 1 time. Then there are the quick marriages that never should have happened. So, there are so many factors that it's tough to get a real statistic on divorce rates.

And I don't necessarily think that parents being divorced means you will too. Or that un-divorced parents means it will work. Or that 2nd marriages can't work, because the person has shown lack of commitment in first marriage. It all depends on the two people in the marriage and if they have what it takes to stay committed and work through whatever comes their way. Both my parents & DH's parents are married for over 40 years and they are all still happy. But, I've seen my parents come close to divorce, work hard to survive and recover. I've seen my brother fight to save his marriage, but his wife had no interest in making it work, leading to divorce... his 2nd marriage has been successful for over 12 years now. To me, statistics don't mean so much because each person and each couple is different.

blabla89 · November 2014

I have Shaunti Feldhahn's book "For Women Only" and I've found some of it to be insightful, and it has helped me get better at communicating with FI. So I don't think she's a raging crackpot. I am curious about her research methods and how she arrived at her statistics, though.

larrygaga · November 2014

Take every single statistic with a grain of salt. Look at their sample size, area, type of people interviewed. They could have interviewed ten people, had 5 divorce and then say that statistic is fact because according to their sample size, it is fact. However, that is not representative of the population. If they interviewed like hundreds of thousands of people, then maybe there is something to that statistic.

I had to take a lot of stats classes in college and oh my god did it open my eyes.

penguin44 · November 2014

larrygaga said:

Take every single statistic with a grain of salt. Look at their sample size, area, type of people interviewed. They could have interviewed ten people, had 5 divorce and then say that statistic is fact because according to their sample size, it is fact. However, that is not representative of the population. If they interviewed like hundreds of thousands of people, then maybe there is something to that statistic.

I had to take a lot of stats classes in college and oh my god did it open my eyes.

This exactly. Every statistic can be skewed to convey the message you want to convey.

decembergrl2014 · November 2014

When FI and I did our Pre Cana this summer, they kept saying that 50% of all couples divorce in the first five years. I just shrugged it off. "There's a higher percentage of divorce if your parents are divorced." Well, neither my XH or I were children of divorce, but he and I got divorced. (It had nothing to do with statistics. It had to do with him being a money hungry piece of shit!) It's also been said that your odds of divorce increase if it's the second marriage or more. FI and I are about to get married for the second time. If I listened to statistics, we wouldn't even bother getting married! According to statistics, he and I are pretty much doomed!

steph861 · November 2014

While investigating the truth for The Good News About Marriage, Feldhahn says she discovered that when it comes to first-time marriages, "probably 20 to 25 percent have ended in divorce, on average." That means the 50 percent divorce rate we all assumed to be true may actually be only half that.

Does her analysis account for people who have divorced more than once? From the article, it looks like she's extrapolating from the divorce rate for first-time marriages that the divorce rate for all marriages is well below 50 percent. That could very well be true, but that's some shoddy analysis (or at least shoddy reporting on analysis).

holyguacamole79 · November 2014

100% of lives end in death.

themosthappy91 · November 2014

I read about a study recently (and I can't for the life of me find it right now but I'll keep looking) that began in the 1970's, in which the researchers look a large pool of married couples (and continually added to the pool over subsequent decades) to try to find common factors of lasting "successful" marriages- their definition of success being that there was no divorce, separation, estrangement, or dysfunction (meaning the couples had to actually still like each other and not just be tolerating living under one roof). There were several interesting findings in this study, but one that struck me is when they concluded I think only 30% of marriages they studied met their criteria to be successful. I guess that speaks to how many people "stay together for the kids" type of deal.

larrygaga · November 2014

steph861 said:

While investigating the truth for The Good News About Marriage, Feldhahn says she discovered that when it comes to first-time marriages, "probably 20 to 25 percent have ended in divorce, on average." That means the 50 percent divorce rate we all assumed to be true may actually be only half that.

Does her analysis account for people who have divorced more than once? From the article, it looks like she's extrapolating from the divorce rate for first-time marriages that the divorce rate for all marriages is well below 50 percent. That could very well be true, but that's some shoddy analysis (or at least shoddy reporting on analysis).

But how many people and what types of people did she survey?

princessleia22 · November 2014

themosthappy91 said:

I read about a study recently (and I can't for the life of me find it right now but I'll keep looking) that began in the 1970's, in which the researchers look a large pool of married couples (and continually added to the pool over subsequent decades) to try to find common factors of lasting "successful" marriages- their definition of success being that there was no divorce, separation, estrangement, or dysfunction (meaning the couples had to actually still like each other and not just be tolerating living under one roof). There were several interesting findings in this study, but one that struck me is when they concluded I think only 30% of marriages they studied met their criteria to be successful. I guess that speaks to how many people "stay together for the kids" type of deal.

Even with this, it can depend on where the couple is in their life. My parents went through a few years where they really didn't like each other, considered divorce, but decided to stay together and try to make it work, mainly because they had kids. Had they been counted during that rough patch, they wouldn't have met the criteria and would have been considered a non-successful marriage. But, now (20 years later) they are one of the happiest couples I know... they are that older couple you see holding hands at the mall and kissing each other in public... the type that makes all of us say "ooohhh... I hope to be like that someday". Now, I'd say they are a total example of successful marriage. Would they have been knocked off the list when they didn't like each other? Would someone have checked back to see if they could get added back to the list?

steph861 · November 2014

larrygaga said:

show previous quotes

steph861 said:

While investigating the truth for The Good News About Marriage, Feldhahn says she discovered that when it comes to first-time marriages, "probably 20 to 25 percent have ended in divorce, on average." That means the 50 percent divorce rate we all assumed to be true may actually be only half that.

Does her analysis account for people who have divorced more than once? From the article, it looks like she's extrapolating from the divorce rate for first-time marriages that the divorce rate for all marriages is well below 50 percent. That could very well be true, but that's some shoddy analysis (or at least shoddy reporting on analysis).

But how many people and what types of people did she survey? So many questions!

Jells2dot0 · November 2014

I was watching the Today Show or GMA this morning and they said "four out of ten marriages include one partner that has been previously married." If previously married meant divorced, we'd be looking at a high divorce rate. However, that could include widows/widowers. We don't know that and we don't know anything about the people they surveyed.

It also said "two out of ten marriages have partners that were both previously married." I guess I'm in that very special group. LOL

fwtx5815 · November 2014

I've also read about the 50% being a gross overstatement, don't remember where though.

The article also said that the odds of a marriage ending in divorce are much less if both partners graduated high school, even less if they both graduated college, even less if they live above the poverty line, etc.

CMGragain · November 2014

Think about it. Many couples divorce after many years of marriage. Often they stay together "for the sake of the children" and then divorce when the last chick has flown. You would have to wait 35 years before the statistics of a generation would be valid.
My generation was notorious for divorce. We were the flower children who thought "Love Is All You Need". Lots of men had to go to Vietnam, and came back damaged goods. Many of those long haired hippy protesters are now corporate lawyers or stockbrokers. Our generation saw a lot of change.
The current brides seem to wait until they are older to get married. They also value education. I think your generation will have a better chance for success in marriage.

larrygaga · November 2014

CMGragain said:

Think about it. Many couples divorce after many years of marriage. Often they stay together "for the sake of the children" and then divorce when the last chick has flown. You would have to wait 35 years before the statistics of a generation would be valid.
My generation was notorious for divorce. We were the flower children who thought "Love Is All You Need". Lots of men had to go to Vietnam, and came back damaged goods. Many of those long haired hippy protesters are now corporate lawyers or stockbrokers. Our generation saw a lot of change.
The current brides seem to wait until they are older to get married. They also value education. I think your generation will have a better chance for success in marriage.

And just what is your sample size? Everyone you know? That's not a very big sample.

Also, I know you did not just call our Veterans "damaged goods". Please have some respect.

lyndausvi · November 2014

My parents have been married for 46 years (first marriage for both).

My MIL has been divorced twice. Not currently married.

DH's father to our knowledge has been divorced 5 times. There might be more. As far as we know he is not currently married.

Our sample has an 85% divorce rate.

esstee33 · November 2014

@lyndausvi Just between FI and I and our parents, we're both on our second marriages, my dad remarried, and my mom is on her 4th marriage. FI's mom never married. I'm pretty godawful at math, but that's, what, like 71%?

lyndausvi · November 2014

esstee33 said:

@lyndausvi Just between FI and I and our parents, we're both on our second marriages, my dad remarried, and my mom is on her 4th marriage. FI's mom never married. I'm pretty godawful at math, but that's, what, like 71%?

LOL. Sample size has a lot to do with stats.

My side of the family has only has 1 divorce at the aunt/uncle level. 7 out of 24 marriages in the first cousin level.

On Dh's the only divorce is from his parents. None if his aunts, cousins or even 3rd cousins have a divorce. With his parents number being so high it really skews the numbers on that side- LOL

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